Malema may mobilise the ‘walking wounded’

It will be a fatal error for Julius Malema to believe that Zuma’s enemies are his friends. Some of Zuma’s opponents actually celebrated Juju’s demise on Saturday.

Now that the appeals committee has confirmed his conviction, he is unlikely to get a reprieve from the national executive committee (NEC) – whose majority can neither be described as Malema or Zuma supporters.

A significant number of NEC members respect chairman of the appeals committee Cyril Ramaphosa. They will therefore not view his panel’s decision to uphold Juju’s conviction as politically motivated. Even Malema holds Ramaphosa in high regard.

Therefore, the NEC – which is the highest decision-making structure between conferences – might not review his conviction despite a few members, including his friend, Sports Minister Fikile Mbalula, who believe Malema was a victim of political persecution.

He could only hope the ANC’s elective conference will resuscitate him from what he perceived as his crucifixion for championing nationalisation and his leadership preference (he doesn’t want Zuma and Gwede Mantashe to do a second term).

I don’t see the NEC wasting its time discussing Malema unless he reveals explosive and embarrassing secrets about Zuma.

Alternatively, a regime change in Luthuli House could revive Malema’s career, if Zuma’s successor decides to grant him a pardon. But who said Zuma will be replaced in Mangaung, or his successor will automatically be Malema’s friend?

Malema is also hoping Mbalula will be the party’s next secretary-general. Still, no single individual can decide to overturn the outcome of disciplinary processes .

It will be suicidal if he decides to approach the courts, as this route is frowned on and viewed as “un-ANC”.

Another blow to Malema is that the winter policy conference is highly likely to kick out his dream for the nationalisation of mines.

Malema often forgets he is no Zuma. He is unlikely to pull off a “Friends of Julius Malema” fan club. He confuses his populism for popularity. This is why he easily dismisses opinion polls.

His arrogance, opulent lifestyle and harrying politics have alienated potential fans.

But it will be a mistake to underestimate his power or write him off completely.

Deputy Science Minister Derek Hanekom is unlikely to commute Malema’s suspension sentence during mitigating arguments.

Therefore, Juju will finally vacate his office in Luthuli House. He will withdraw from the scene, retreat to Limpopo and start plotting clandestinely for Zuma’s downfall.

He will surely mobilise the so-called walking wounded (a term coined by Cosatu’s Zwelinzima Vavi in reference to those hurt by Thabo Mbeki). The list is growing – from fired civil servants, sulking politicians to Zumaphobes.

The fallout between erstwhile comrades has also fractured the alliance, creating a loose and shaky anti-Zuma block on one side and an equally wobbly faction of Zuma supporters on the other.

Malema will try to link with the “Friends of Thabo Mbeki” or perhaps the anti-Zuma block (some in the Gauteng ANC) who want Kgalema Motlanthe to succeed Zuma.

But they have nothing in common. In fact, some do not want to be seen with Juju. But who said Zuma supporters in 2007 were a homogenous lot? They were bound by a fierce antipathy towards Mbeki.

However, Malema must not forget that some of his comrades – especially his funders – were actually attracted to his power.

Those who saw his influence in Limpopo as a stepping stone to their careers and business ventures might now find him a useless and spent force.